Monday, November 2, 2009

Gold

They have been buyin it this morning.  Made a swing high of 1065 and pulled back to the lower triangle support area of 1059.  In my experience, when you have a failed extended triangle breakout, they should push it through the resistance areas pretty easily.  But, at this hour that remains to be seen.  The day is far from over, and I am long, and will remain that way unless my trailing stop at 1055 is hit.  Stocks are holding their own, baring a push below 1040, we should remain positive for correlated products.

Bonds

Technically, we should buyers of weakness today.  Negatively correlating to stocks, fridays rally had more volume than thursdays selloff.  So I will look to buy some more weakness in bonds later this morning.  But, dont forget the fed meeting on wednesday.  The question is will the fed change its stance on the statement... We will remain accomadative for an extended period of time.  Obviously, thats not an exact quote, but pretty close.  Some think the fed shift to a somewhat more hawkish stance this meeting due to the overall improvement in economic data and the stock market.  My thoughts are, even though its a lagging indicator, the fed will not shift its stance until they feel the job markets has turned a corner in a significant way.  How that will occur, I dont know, but it sure as hell will make the bond market crazy and fun trade.  That being said the technicals are bullish and I will remain that way for the time being.

The British Pound Sterling

They continue to drive me nuts.  I was itchen to get short all day, but failed to find an entry of my likings.  Its funny, sometimes the best trades require a lack of discipline, to just say f it and jump in.  But, I refuse to do that.  I have learned my lessons in the past and will stick to my methods of entry and exit.  Anyway,  I will look to find a short somewhere.  The problem lies, is that I am expecting a 3rd impulse wave, on the 60 min chart.  The 3rd wave should be fast, furious, and relentless.  But, it remains to be seen.

The week ahead


Well, this week promises to be just as exciting as the last. We have a good amount of data, earnings, a fed decision, and non farm friday. Should be a somewhat tame morning. Gold currently is up $10, or about 1%. In retro spect I should have gotten long on friday. So, I just purchase some bullion at 1055.5. Posted is a 60 minute chart. We have a bullflag with new momentum highs, adx is rising, and the stochastic is giving us the goahead as well. My stop is at 1044, and I will look to trail a stop behind the 30 low moving average on the 15 minute chart.