Gold

They have been buyin it this morning.  Made a swing high of 1065 and pulled back to the lower triangle support area of 1059.  In my experience, when you have a failed extended triangle breakout, they should push it through the resistance areas pretty easily.  But, at this hour that remains to be seen.  The day is far from over, and I am long, and will remain that way unless my trailing stop at 1055 is hit.  Stocks are holding their own, baring a push below 1040, we should remain positive for correlated products.

Bonds

Technically, we should buyers of weakness today.  Negatively correlating to stocks, fridays rally had more volume than thursdays selloff.  So I will look to buy some more weakness in bonds later this morning.  But, dont forget the fed meeting on wednesday.  The question is will the fed change its stance on the statement... We will remain accomadative for an extended period of time.  Obviously, thats not an exact quote, but pretty close.  Some think the fed shift to a somewhat more hawkish stance this meeting due to the overall improvement in economic data and the stock market.  My thoughts are, even though its a lagging indicator, the fed will not shift its stance until they feel the job markets has turned a corner in a significant way.  How that will occur, I dont know, but it sure as hell will make the bond market crazy and fun trade.  That being said the technicals are bullish and I will remain that way for the time being.

The British Pound Sterling

They continue to drive me nuts.  I was itchen to get short all day, but failed to find an entry of my likings.  Its funny, sometimes the best trades require a lack of discipline, to just say f it and jump in.  But, I refuse to do that.  I have learned my lessons in the past and will stick to my methods of entry and exit.  Anyway,  I will look to find a short somewhere.  The problem lies, is that I am expecting a 3rd impulse wave, on the 60 min chart.  The 3rd wave should be fast, furious, and relentless.  But, it remains to be seen.

The week ahead

Well, this week promises to be just as exciting as the last. We have a good amount of data, earnings, a fed decision, and non farm friday. Should be a somewhat tame morning. Gold currently is up $10, or about 1%. In retro spect I should have gotten long on friday. So, I just purchase some bullion at 1055.5. Posted is a 60 minute chart. We have a bullflag with new momentum highs, adx is rising, and the stochastic is giving us the goahead as well. My stop is at 1044, and I will look to trail a stop behind the 30 low moving average on the 15 minute chart.

Paul Tudor Jones

Here is an article descibing the legendary traders market perspective.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/170167-paul-tudor-jones-gold-s-undervalued-and-bonds-are-a-curve-flattener-play?source=hp

Wild Friday

The end of the day has come. Stocks were smashed, closing very weak, we shall look for continued weakness on monday. Bonds rallied, strong dollar, weak oil. The same correlations have continued. One interesting thing to note, which I wrote about earlier today, gold actually rallied back throughout the afternoon. I will definately look to be a buyer of gold on monday. Payrolls friday!!! Should be a fun week.

Accessing my performance today... My only swing trade was in bonds and that worked lovely. I was scalping s and p's, doing quite well, but made a couple undisciplined trades at the end of the day to end down a few ticks. Scalping requires military discipline and extreme focus, and every so often my mind gives way to market emotion. I will look to work on that next week. I can't wait for monday!

Amgen, is anyone shocked by this?

Amgen Sued Over Alleged Sales Kickback Schemes
Published: Friday, 30 Oct 2009 | 2:31 PM ET Text Size By: CNBC.com
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and 14 other states are filing a lawsuit against Amgen, alleging that the biotech company was offering kickbacks to medical providers to increase the sales of its anemia drug Aranesp.



According to the complaint, Amgen, along with International Nephrology Network and ASD Healthcare, encouraged medical providers to bill third-party payers, such as Medicaid, to receive Aranesp for free.

Amgen [AMGN 53.68 -0.61 (-1.12%) ] was further accused of conspiring with the companies to offer medical providers weekend retreats and other services to persuade them to buy and prescribe the drug.

"Drugs should be prescribed to patients on the basis of need, effectiveness and safety, not on a corporate giant's promise of an all-expense paid vacation," Cuomo said in a press release.

The complaint said the companies allegedly caused thousands of ineligible claims for the drug to be paid and millions of dollars in damages to state Medicaid programs.


The other states involved in the complaint include California, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, Tennessee and Virginia.

Aranesp is an anemia drug that is designed to boost the production of red blood cells in the body. It was approved by the FDA in 2001. Amgen's total revenue since the drug has been on the market totals more than $11 billion.

Amgen shares were down in afternoon trading.

© 2009 CNBC.com

Citi

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33552566
Citi is expected to write down another $10 billion! Wow, I don't understand how the best and brightest bankers across the world are so bad at managing risk? Isnt that their job? If I were that bad at managing risk, I wouldnt have one!

Gold

To my suprise gold has held up the best in spite of todays action. Oil is down $2.8, euro and the pound down significantly. Yet gold is down a meager $5. It has been the strongest market and for the time being will remain such.

Holy Selloff!!!

We have 15 minute buy divergences and a higher low in ticks. But, I am surely not buyin this market! If I were short, which I'm not, I would look for the lows to hold for the remainder of the day. We have had a wild week!

Lot of action

Well, bonds have reached my objective. I covered my position at 119'31! I will look to remain bullish on monday. On the stock side, they have taken a tumble. I was looking for lower trade but to hold in the high 40s, that did not happen, the Bears are in charge!

Apple, Apple, Apple! O how I hate this stock

This is the story of how badly I have traded this stock. First, let me say I own just about every piece of apple equipment out there. And every time I go to the apple store, I watch in amazement of how many people are there at all times. And for some reason they always seem so happy. Anyway, on to my trades...
1. Around the march stock index lows, I purchased the stock, I rarely buy stock, at around $90 per share. I realized a gain a few weeks later for around $110. Nice trade, nothing wrong with taking profit, right?

Looks like bonds will retest there highs again. I digress!

2. I left the stock alone for awhile watching it climb daily. Ahead of earnings last quarter, I noticed aapl was trading in oversold territory and had an outside down day with heavy volume. So I put on an vertical call spread, selling 175s and buying to 180s for protection. I haven't looked up my trades so these prices are off the top of my head. So earnings come out, and I cover my spread for a realized loss of most of the spread. crap. I felt earnings were so good I probably wont see any love on this trade, so I puked.

3. Well to make a long story short, I basically made the same trade again this time around.

And, finally as with the market apple has faltered as well. They traded above 200, where it felt like they will march on forever, and now sitting vulnerably at 194. The market is a cruel mechanism that will torture you in ways you didnt think possible. O well learn from the mistakes and move on. My mistake was that this stock was in a very strong uptrend, and ignored my what fundamentally made sense because I exited my initial long early. I took low probability trades to subconsciously make up for the fact that I didnt realize the possible gains on the long side.

The Pound!!! I'm itchin to sell!!!

I have been annoyed by the trade in the british pound. I cant seem to find an entry of my liking. An entry that will provide me with an excellent risk/reward adhereing to my rules. Today, they continue to trade slightly lower, and I continue to say errrr. But, I will wait ever so patiently for my entry.

todays trading in the S&P 500 future

Thus far today, we have seen weak trade. Economic data came in as expected for the street, better that expected in my opinion. We still have not taken out yesterdays high and remain weak. I am looking for a smaller range day, so I would say as the es trades 53s at 10:15 central, the downside is limited to 45-47.5.

Comcast

Currently down 20 cents @ 14.80. Earnings are wed nov 4 before the open. I will wait until next week to establish my bullish position.

Bonds

I just bought some bonds!!! As you can see on the daily chart, we have a buy divergence. A couple reasons to be skeptical though are because yesterdays selloff had good volume and we have a head and shoulders pattern. For this reason I will cut this puppy short on a trade below 119'01. I bought 119'10 and will look for a retest of 120'00. My entry was made on the pullback on a 5 minute chart after new momentum highs.

Comcast

Cmcsa or Comcast. The stock has basically gone sideways for the past year, but I have been bullish for fundamental and personal reasons. My comcast bill is outrageous! But, I pay it, as does everyone else. There competitors just dont match up. They are in a unique position to capitalize on the growing trend of streaming video. Soon, dvd's, bluerays, tapes, will allbe a thing of the past, hard drives, dvr's, and streaming HD content will rule and reign forever!!! Furthermore there commercials are funny. But, most importantly, we have a buy divergence on the daily chart ahead of earnings!!!!! Only problem is the stock is in a sideways pattern, lending a lower probability to our divergence. That being said I am fundamentally bullish of the stock, the tech sector has continued to out perform, and earnings blowouts have been the norm.

Overnight ES

The s&p future has traded a bit lower overnight. After a trend up day, we should still be looking for new highs to be made. The probability is somewhere in the ballpark of 90%. If the market fails to take this high of 1064 out, that is a pretty convincing bearish signal for me.

The British Pound

The pound future retraced 76% of the major selloff last week. So far the highs from yesterday have held. Could this be the start of Wave 3. Following Elliott wave theory, Wave 1 was the initial selloff, wave 2 is the retracement(wave 2 usually retraces a significant portion of wave 1, and wave 3 could be on the horizon. I will wait for todays data to show face before I commit to this hypothesis. Remember, wave 3 is swift, fast, and the largest impulse wave!!! or the money wave!!!

NYSE Ticks from previous post

The S&P 500 60 Minute

In my first post I would like to discuss yesterday and todays action in the S&P 500 future. Trend down, trend up! Not a statisically likely scenario, but the government inflated GDP number this morning was too much for the heavy volume selloff we saw on tuesday. A couple important notes that I took from today. Once again, volume was heavier on tuesdays selloff. NYSE Ticks were obviously quite weak on tuesday and very strong on Wednesday. But, at the end of today we saw some very negative readings. That tells me the sellers are still thirsty. Based on the aforementioned I will look for a lower close tomorrow. We have some interesting data releases... personal income and spending. I am looking for some weak numbers. This should contain the morning buying frenzy. Furthermore, we have had 2 big range days in a row, and should look for some consolidation. I will look for a normal range day with a downside bias.